A parliamentary majority for MDP and a Cabinet reshuffle!

After a hard-fought parliamentary election, the ruling party (MDP) seems to have acquired two seats less than the amount acquired by the opposition (DRP). Yet, leading figures of MDP have publicly stated that they have no doubt that when the dust settles, and when the final results are announced, they would get the majority of the 77 seats in the parliament.

Though the current results are based on preliminary results announced by the Elections Commission, it is not anticipated that these figures would change when the final results are announced by the Commission in a few days time. So how would MDP be able to get a majority?

1. They need to get at least 39 seats to get a simple majority. A source close to the MDP leadership tells me that they are aiming to get 40 seats before the end of the month. That means they need to convince 14 elected members to switch to MDP. Where would these 14 members come from?

2. There are 13 independent members according to the preliminary results. It is possible that the ruling party could persuade about 9 of those to join MDP. But even if that happens, the party would still need another four seats to get a majority.

3. One option would be to make peace with Gasim’s Jumhooree Party and Dr. Hassan Seed’s Gaumee Party. That would bring 3 more seats. I do not believe that Gasim would openly challenge the ruling party with just the single seat that his party won. Dr. Hassan’s Gaumee Party won only two seats. Of those two, Riyaz Rasheed’s seat appears to be a soft target for MDP if they can convince him to switch allegiance.

4. There are also unconfirmed rumors that MDP and President Nasheed have been in touch with some DRP members such as Mahloof and Alhaan in order to persuade them that their political future is with a vibrant party such as MDP and not with a party led by an outdated leadership.

5. Either way I think MDP could very well get a majority in the parliament. But they would need to get a lesson from the results of this election and try to correct some of the mistakes that they have done after the election of Nasheed as President. They need to replace some of the incapable appointments with more appropriate people.

6. People such as Meemu Sappey, Jameel, Dhiyana, Ibrahim Hussain Zaki, Kerafa Naseem and some Provincial State Ministers such as Mohamed Naseer need to be replaced. Zaki could be sent as some ambassador and Mohamed Naseer could be put in charge of Gan Airport or something! But I would like to think that people such as Dr. Shaheed (despite not being MDP members) have done enough to suggest that they could continue to keep their cabinet post. But the bottom line is that some people need to go.
The ruling party should also ensure that brutal ex-leaders such as Gayyoom and Adam Zahir are brought to justice. The public demands this and there will be no healing until these chapters are finally closed!