There’s only one United and there’s only one MDP!

A reader commented on this blog: “DRP won 2-0. Dhen La la laa Bush! You know nothing about predicting politics!”

Wasn’t it DRP who predicted that Gayyoom would win the presidential election in 2008? Wasn’t it DRP who predicted that Maldivians will never elect Mohamed Nasheed as their president? Wasn’t it DRP who predicted that they would win 60 seats in the Majlis?

Well! Gayyoom didn’t win the presidential election! Maldivian’s did elect Nasheed as their president! Drp didn’t win 60 seats in the Majlis. So who is it who can’t predict politics? Me or DRP?

I’m not scared of making predictions. Sometimes you get it right and sometimes you get it wrong. This time I was wrong. The front page of Haveeru Daily reported that DRP won and the back page of the newspaper reported that Barcelona won the final match! I had to put masking-tape on the front and the back pages of Haveeru before I could touch it even with sugical gloves! (he he! kidding!) Anyway, life can seem to be so cruel at times. But it is the brave and the wise that can always detect or sense the silver lining in the gloomy clouds!

Now, just because a DRP member (Shahid) is the elected Speaker of the Majlis, don’t expect him to be a lapdog of Gayyoom or Yamin or Thasmeen. In politics things can reverse just overnight. Alliances can break and new alliances could be made. Nasheed is still the president and insha Allah Manchester United will win the quintuple next season!

Ministers Jameel and Sawad should go next!

Coming Thursday (28th May) will be a hugely significant date on the political calendar of this country. If the two candidates proposed by DRP (Abdullah Shahid and Ahmed Nazim) get elected as the President and the Deputy President of the People’s Majlis, that would show that the opposition party (DRP) has control of the parliament. In principle there’s nothing wrong with an opposition party having control of the parliament. In fact that’s quite common in democratic countries such as the United States too.
The reason why many common people dread a DRP-controlled parliament is that such a situation would virtually prevent the government from prosecuting corrupt criminals from the previous regime which was led by DRP.
I still believe that president Nasheed and his government (along with MDP) would make sure that they muster enough seats in the parliament to allow a smooth progress of events in the prosecution of corrupt and rogue elements from Gayyoom’s regime. Those who illicitly devoured millions of dollars of public money and those who beat us up and killed our brothers and sisters in jails and various other places.
I welcome the establishment of a commission by the president to investigate the corrupt acts of the old regime. I have been saying all along that this nation cannot heal itself unless and until these rogue elements are prosecuted and brought to justice.
As for the sacking of the Attorney General (Dhiyana), I have to say that it was suggested in this blog even before the parliamentary election. I believe that the Communications Minister Jameel and the Tourism Minister Ali Sawad should go next. We need a more dynamic Tourism Minister and Jameel seems to hate the government too much to allow him to do his job properly.

A parliamentary majority for MDP and a Cabinet reshuffle!

After a hard-fought parliamentary election, the ruling party (MDP) seems to have acquired two seats less than the amount acquired by the opposition (DRP). Yet, leading figures of MDP have publicly stated that they have no doubt that when the dust settles, and when the final results are announced, they would get the majority of the 77 seats in the parliament.

Though the current results are based on preliminary results announced by the Elections Commission, it is not anticipated that these figures would change when the final results are announced by the Commission in a few days time. So how would MDP be able to get a majority?

1. They need to get at least 39 seats to get a simple majority. A source close to the MDP leadership tells me that they are aiming to get 40 seats before the end of the month. That means they need to convince 14 elected members to switch to MDP. Where would these 14 members come from?

2. There are 13 independent members according to the preliminary results. It is possible that the ruling party could persuade about 9 of those to join MDP. But even if that happens, the party would still need another four seats to get a majority.

3. One option would be to make peace with Gasim’s Jumhooree Party and Dr. Hassan Seed’s Gaumee Party. That would bring 3 more seats. I do not believe that Gasim would openly challenge the ruling party with just the single seat that his party won. Dr. Hassan’s Gaumee Party won only two seats. Of those two, Riyaz Rasheed’s seat appears to be a soft target for MDP if they can convince him to switch allegiance.

4. There are also unconfirmed rumors that MDP and President Nasheed have been in touch with some DRP members such as Mahloof and Alhaan in order to persuade them that their political future is with a vibrant party such as MDP and not with a party led by an outdated leadership.

5. Either way I think MDP could very well get a majority in the parliament. But they would need to get a lesson from the results of this election and try to correct some of the mistakes that they have done after the election of Nasheed as President. They need to replace some of the incapable appointments with more appropriate people.

6. People such as Meemu Sappey, Jameel, Dhiyana, Ibrahim Hussain Zaki, Kerafa Naseem and some Provincial State Ministers such as Mohamed Naseer need to be replaced. Zaki could be sent as some ambassador and Mohamed Naseer could be put in charge of Gan Airport or something! But I would like to think that people such as Dr. Shaheed (despite not being MDP members) have done enough to suggest that they could continue to keep their cabinet post. But the bottom line is that some people need to go.
The ruling party should also ensure that brutal ex-leaders such as Gayyoom and Adam Zahir are brought to justice. The public demands this and there will be no healing until these chapters are finally closed!